Chevron is bracing for a potential downturn, with Wall Street analysts broadly predicting a year-over-year decline in both earnings and revenue for the quarter ending March 2026.
The oil giant’s near-term stock performance, however, will hinge on whether its actual results manage to defy—or confirm—these widely held consensus estimates.
The upcoming earnings report, slated for release on May 1, will likely determine the stock’s direction. Should the key financial figures surpass expectations, the stock is poised for an increase; conversely, a miss could lead to a decline.
Q1 earnings forecast vs. long-term growth strategy
Assessing the likelihood of a positive earnings per share (EPS) surprise is prudent, although the long-term sustainability of the initial price movement and future earnings outlook will primarily be determined by management’s commentary on business conditions during the upcoming earnings call.
Chevron’s revenues are projected to reach $47.4 billion, according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, representing a slight 0.5% decrease from the same period last year.
Meanwhile, the consensus earnings per share forecast remains at 92 cents over the past seven days, indicating a significant 57.8% decline compared to the earnings reported a year ago.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a strong outlook for Chevron in 2026, anticipating revenues of $214 billion, which represents a 13.2% year-over-year increase.
In addition, the consensus mark for 2026 earnings per share is $13.55, suggesting an impressive surge of 85.9%.
Chevron has consistently exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reporting an average earnings surprise of 5.6% over the last four quarters.
This positive trend continued in the most recent reported quarter, where the company delivered an earnings surprise of 5.6%.
Chevron is systematically strengthening its earnings through ongoing cost restructuring.
In 2025, the company had already achieved $1.5 billion in structural cost savings.
This is part of a broader strategy, largely focused on technology integration and efficiency improvements, with a clear target of reaching $3–$4 billion in total savings by the end of 2026, according to a Yahoo Finance report.
The financial gains are permanent, not temporary, as they are integrated into operations, resulting in lower unit costs and higher margins.
This, along with a more efficient operating structure and enhanced supply-chain performance, establishes a more robust free cash flow outlook, even amid fluctuating prices.
Consequently, this is anticipated to have positively impacted Chevron’s first-quarter earnings and cash flows.
Downstream losses and volume decline
However, Chevron’s first-quarter performance is expected to reflect a somewhat bearish trend, primarily due to anticipated lower volumes and ongoing pressures in the downstream segment.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a decrease in production to 3.86 million of oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBOE/d), down from over 4.0 MBOE/d in the fourth quarter of 2025.
This expected decline is largely attributed to downtime at Tengiz, as well as weaker output from operations in both Israel and the Partitioned Zone.
Downstream earnings are expected to be significantly lower, primarily due to several major impacts: $275–$325 million from turnarounds and downtime, and a legal charge of $350–$400 million.
These factors are anticipated to temporarily overshadow the benefits of stronger upstream pricing, leading to an overall compression of earnings.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter downstream segment is currently a loss of $1.3 billion, a sharp contrast to the $325 million profit reported by Chevron in the year-ago period.
Geopolitical buffer and accounting adjustments
Earlier this month, Chevron said it anticipates a first-quarter increase in upstream earnings, projecting a rise of $1.6 billion to $2.2 billion compared to the preceding quarter.
The company attributes this expected growth primarily to elevated oil prices, spurred by the Iran war.
However, it cautioned that the final results could be partially offset by the impact of hedging activities.
The US oil major anticipates that accounting and hedging timing effects will result in a reduction of $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion after tax in both earnings and operating cash flow (excluding working capital).
This impact is primarily concentrated in the company’s downstream business and is expected to reverse in the future.
The conflict in the Middle East, which began on February 28, led to a surge in oil prices, reaching increases of up to 65%.
The price increase was primarily due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial chokepoint for 20% of the world’s energy supply—which resulted in the cessation of production at several oil and gas fields in the Middle East.
Chevron is relatively insulated from Middle East volatility compared to other supermajors, with the region contributing just over 1% of its total liquids production.
This positioning means Chevron is better situated to capitalize on rising commodity prices, according to Biraj Borkhataria, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
Despite this advantage, Chevron anticipates its net oil-equivalent production will average 3.8 million to 3.9 million barrels per day.
This is due to expected volume reductions from downtime at the Tengizchevroil project in Kazakhstan and decreased output in certain Middle Eastern areas.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, Shell has indicated that weaker first-quarter gas output and a temporary impact on liquidity will be somewhat balanced by stronger oil trading.
This revealed an early insight into how geopolitical tensions, specifically the US-Israeli conflict over Iran, are influencing the earnings outlook for major oil companies.
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